An August 2015 report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service indicates a significant increase in Pacific surface water temperatures and strengthening equatorial westerly winds reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.
There is now a “greater than 90 percent” chance that El Niño conditions will contribute to a wet winter/snow forecast for the Lake Tahoe area and around an “85% chance it will last into early spring 2016” when combined with cold fronts potentially bring more snow than the big winter snow storms of 1997-98.
From SFgate.com on Oct 8, 2015
“Federal forecasters on Thursday reinforced expectations of a strong El Niño this winter, saying there’s a 95 percent chance the burly weather phenomenon, often linked to rain in California, sticks around until spring.
Equatorial waters in the Pacific remain extraordinarily warm and trade winds that typically push balmy seas away from the Americas remain weak. The conditions portend an El Niño on par with the giants in 1997-98 and 1982-83, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.
In the past, strong El Niños have correlated with above-average rain in the southern United States, with Southern California often a landing pad for major storms and floods. Northern California has historically been less affected by El Niño, though the stronger the system, the higher the chances of rain.
During the 1997-98 winter, San Francisco saw a whopping 47 inches of rain, more than double the average.” – sfgate
Get your skis, snowboards and gear tuned and waxed.. it’s looking to be white powdery 2015 – 2016 Lake Tahoe winter.
Read more about 2015 Tahoe El Nino forecast..